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Slowplaying
When players consider reasons to not slow-play, the first concern is the risk of giving the opponent(s) a free card, and how often this free card might give them the better hand. When this disaster happens, you will lose a big pot instead of winning a small one. Given this, should you rarely slow-play hands that are vulnerable (e.g., 10♠-10♦ on a J♦-10♥-4♠ flop, or A♠-J♠ on a K♦-Q♦-10♥ flop), but always slow-play hands that are practically unbeatable (e.g., 10♠-10♦ on a 10♥-5♣-5♠ flop, or Q♥-J♥ on a 10♥-9♥-8♠ flop)? The answer is still no, you should rarely slow-play. It is not just the concern that the next card could beat you, but the chance that the next card might be more likely to kill your action rather than create more of it. Let’s look more closely at some examples.
Consider again the situation where you are holding 10♠-10♦ on a 10♥‑5♣‑5♠ flop. Any opponent can have at most one or two outs to beat you. Somebody holding A-A, K-K, Q-Q, or J-J has two outs, and somebody with a 5 has one out. And not only can your opponents either be drawing dead or at least very slim, it is highly unlikely that anybody else has hit this flop. For them to have improved with this flop, they must be holding the last 10, or one of two 5s, which is very unlikely. So this seems like a perfect situation to slow-play. And if you are ever going to slow-play (and obviously you should at least some of the time), this is a very good time to do so. But against what hands might you get action now (when you don’t slow-play), and against what hands might you get action later but not now (when you do slow-play)?
If your opponent has any pocket pair, then this looks like a good flop for them, especially if they are holding an overpair (A-A, K-K, Q-Q, or J-J). But even with a smaller pair, 9-9 and below, this looks like a good flop. It would seem unlikely you have a 5 in your hand, as that is not a common card to play. And while you might have a 10, that is the only overcard to their pair on the board, and they know you aren’t that likely to have a 10. Therefore, if you bet after they check this flop, there is a reasonable chance you will get called (or check-raised) by these hands. What if they don’t hold a pair, but instead just two high cards, such as A-J or K-Q? Again, this is the driest of flops, and is unlikely to have hit you. If they believed they had the best hand preflop, they will probably believe that they still have the best hand now. As such, it is unlikely they will just check-and-fold, and will at least call your bet.
What if they have an even worse hand? If they called your raise preflop, they might be holding a hand that is now fairly hopeless, such as suited connectors (e.g., Q♠-9♠ or 7♦-6♦). With these hands they can only bluff or fold, and if you bet the flop, they might choose to check-raise bluff, or call (float) now, and then bluff later. The main advantage of slow-playing this flop, is that when you check behind, they might be inspired to bluff the turn or river, whereas if you bet the flop, they might just fold.
One of the best reasons to slow-play the flop is that the opponent might make a pair or a draw on the turn, and then pay you off (or be inspired to bluff, as we discussed above). But if they have nothing on the flop, then they have at most six outs on the turn to make a pair. Depending upon their exact hand, there might be many cards in the deck that are higher than both of their cards that could hit the turn instead. In most cases, there are going to be a lot more cards in the deck that scare the opponent, as compared to cards that improve their hand.
Consider the same hand, where we have flopped a full house, 10s full of 5s, and let’s consider an opponent holding 9-9. The pair of 5s on the board will scare them a little, and the 10 a bit more, but they know that if their pair was ahead preflop, it is probably still ahead now. But if you slow-play, how are they going to react when an A, K, Q, or J is dealt on the turn? They are now going to be that much more concerned that they don’t have the best hand. Of course, when instead the turn card is anything 8 or below, their confidence level will go up, but they are still unlikely to put a lot of chips into the pot, on this board, unless they catch one of the two 9s in the deck. Your slow-play might gain you a few extra chips some of the time, but most of the time it will cost you chips instead.
Many of those who slow-play all the time reinforce their mistake by assuming, when they do get a call on the turn or river, that if they hadn’t slow-played they would not have won those chips. But much of the time, they could have gotten the same call on the flop, and possibly even more chips on the turn or river. And frequently, you just won’t get any more chips out of the opponent no matter what you do.
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